NAHU had been asking for this for many months and here is the inaugural issue of CMS newsletter for Agents and Brokers who participate in the Federally Facilitated Exchanges of the ACA.
Archive for the ‘Health Care Reform’ Category
Here is a quick case study on the impact of phase out of tax subsidies on relatively low income families as they look to earn more household income. In this example, take a family of 3 with one spouse working a job making $30,000/year (around 150% of poverty level). Assume they live in PA, in the 17112 zip code, neither smokes and they need coverage for their child. Using the Kaiser subsidy calculator, they would qualify for $4,219 in subsidies on their plan premiums.
Now, assume that their child begins school and the non-working spouse can get a job earning $25,000 (total income of $55,000). This additional income would cut their subsidy down to $537. So, the marginal loss of subsidy on the additional $25k of income is $3,682 or 14.7% of the income. Add to the loss of subsidy the marginal federal tax rate at 13.4% (federal taxes go from $0 to $3358 using tax estimator tool), wage taxes of 7.65%, state taxes of 3.07% and local taxes of 2%. This brings the total marginal tax rate (including loss of subsidy) for a family of 3 to increase their income from $30k to $55k to 40.82%.
Granting that pre-ACA, this family would not have had the benefit of the $4,219 subsidy, it’s interesting that now having this subsidy creates something similar to a very regressive “tax” on the relatively low income family looking to “get ahead” by earning more household income.
Here is a link to the CBO’s updated 2014 Budget and Economic Outlook projections. The updated estimates for insurance coverage are found beginning on page 105 and the Labor Market Effects of the ACA are found beginning on page 117.
Some of the interesting highlights include:
- On page 106, you will find the effects of on the deficit. You can see that spending on Exchange Subsidies are projected to ramp up rather quickly. Starting at $20 billion this year, in just 3 years, subsidies are expected to exceed $100 billion/year starting in 2017 and continue to rise to $159 billion by 2024.
- On page 107, the CBO expects about 6 million people to receive coverage on the exchanges (down from their earlier estimate of 7 million), however, in 3 years, the number is expected to quadruple to 24 to 25 million by 2017.
- Roughly 80% of those enrolled via exchanges are expected to receive subsidies.
- On page 108, the ACA expects to reduce the number of uninsured Americans by a little less than half. Roughly decreasing the uninsured by 25 million by 2017 from 56 million to 30 million.
- The CBO expects the pool of Employment based coverage to fall by 2 million in 2015 and by another 4 million in 2016 (6 million total decrease by 2016.
- Average subsidies are expected to be $4,700 per enrollee in 2014, rising to about $5,600 by 2017.
- On page 117, the CBO expects about 2 million people by 2017 to exit the workforce due to the availability of subsidized insurance coverage and expects this to increase to 2.5 million by 2024.
Section 1341, 1342 and 1343 of the Affordable Care Act provides for what are referred to as the “Three R’s” of the ACA. Here is a description of the Three R’s: Reinsurance, Risk Corridors and Risk Adjustment. Risk Corridors, in particular, were NOT scored by the GAO when the ACA was first passed, since the assumption was that they would be revenue neutral. That is, some plans would enroll healthier than expected members and some would enroll sicker than expected members.
However, given the initial adverse risk selection of the ACA, these three sections could end up costing taxpayers. Assuming that the entire enrollment in the exchange business is generally sicker than what insurance companies projected. There is no limit on the amount of money the government can pay under the risk corridors in the current law. In fact, when questioned on the potential cost of the risk corridors, HHS gave no estimate.
Further, an interesting study by Milliman just released indicated that insurance companies may be incentivized to enroll a disproportionate mix of business leaning to membership that is older, sicker and more female. This is based on the risk adjustment rules in the ACA. Prior to the ACA, the more profitable membership was younger, healthier and male. Effectively, Risk Adjustment “turns risk selection on it’s head”. There is one caveat, that is if the entire market moves in the same direction. Since Risk Adjustment is a zero sum game, there would be no other insurers from which to transfer payments on their healthy book of business. If that occurs, you should re-read paragraph 2 as the race to enroll the old and the sick will magnify the taxpayers burden under Risk Corridors.
This is a follow up to a blog post I added a couple days ago from a financial analyst that sees the growth in Medicare advantage slowing.
Forbes contributor, Scott Gottlieb, wrote in a little more detail about the cuts coming in 2015 to the Medicare advantage program. My primary concern is with the funding cuts having to do with the expiration of the Star Rating Demonstration Project, however, given the slowing growth in original Medicare Fee for Service, there may be larger cuts coming in 2015 beyond just this. Beyond this, there will be higher costs with the ACA premium tax and further phase in’s of other funding cuts from the ACA.
I’m looking forward to seeing CMS initial guidance on 2015 reimbursement rates in the 2015 Call Letter. This should be available in mid-February. This will provide our first good look at what’s in store.
This past year was a very strong year for Medicare advantage with enrollment growing by 9% to 15.1 million, however, Carl McDonald who covers Health Care Companies for Citi sees slowing growth in 2014. The primary reason for the slower growth is due to the reductions in reimbursement which are mandated by the Affordable Care Act. This is resulting in less attractive benefits and some Health Insurers trimming their doctor and hospital networks.
In spite of the headwinds for Medicare advantage, McDonald is expecting 5% growth, which would translate into 750,000 new Medicare advantage enrollees. While this is significantly down from the 1,250,000 added in 2013, it does represent a reasonable rate of growth.
Looking even further ahead to 2015, the end of the CMS demonstration project which provided additional funding for Medicare advantage plans with less than 4 stars. This will continue the pressure in 2015 and 2016 until the reimbursements normalize in 2017.