CMS just released their Enrollment figures for every plan and every county in the United States for Medicare Advantage Plans for February 1st, 2010 effectives. This is the first best look at how Medicare Beneficiaries are “voting with their feet” in terms of the plans they are moving towards. The January numbers cut off in early December, so they aren’t nearly as reliable.
I like to measure absolute growth and relative growth and developed a bounded scoring method (similar to the NFL’s Passer Rating). Then, I rank the plans based on their popularity after eliminating low enrollment plans. Next, I color code the top tiers in 5% increments (Red, Orange, Yellow and Green) to create a “heat map” of the “hot” plans.
Finally, I took a general look through the plans by state and by county to see if the data is making sense. It seemed to be rather accurate with some biases. It can’t account for the movement of large employer groups and it tends to favor high population counties and counties where MA plans are well accepted. I really can’t do anything about the employer group issue and I think it makes sense that high MA counties would tend to have hotter plans. Since % growth is factored, however, it doesn’t totally ignore smaller enrollment plans.
If you’d like a copy of the color-coded list, first be sure you are logged into our website and then request it via our “Contact Us” page (check the product information box and reference the Heat Map). This is only available to licensed insurance agents who are REGISTERED USERS of the RitterIM website.
You can register here (BEFORE you request a copy, so you’ll be able to log in) and we’ll verify your status as a licensed agent before we send you a copy (this might take a day or two depending on the volume of requests!)
The heat map is great info – for those of us who like to know all the numbers and trends. Comparing January numbers to February is great, but comparing December 1 numbers to February numbers shows a bigger trend: people changing plans for Jan 1 and then continuing for Feb. 1.
In Arizona the numbers are impressive, though not surprising. I would have never known that this info existed if not for your blog. Thanks.
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